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Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Regular Season - 21 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 16:00

Nõmme Kalju II

PPG 1.09 · HOME

UPCOMING

Maardu

PPG 0.90 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.8 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.0% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.3%0-14.3%0-23.9%0-32.4%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.4%1-18.2%1-27.6%1-34.7%1-4+3.3%2 2-04.2%2-17.8%2-27.3%2-34.5%2-4+3.2%3 3-02.7%3-15.0%3-24.7%3-32.9%3-4+2.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.7%4+-23.5%4+-32.1%4+-4+1.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.8% 40.0% 2.50 -3.0%

Draw 21.5% 26.7% 3.75 -11.6%

Away win 39.6% 47.6% 2.10 -16.8%

Over 2.5 67.0% 87.0% 1.15 -22.9%

Over 3.5 44.9% 67.6% 1.48 -33.6%

BTTS 63.5% — — —

Home O1.5 53.6% 65.4% 1.53 -18.0%

Away O1.5 50.0% 70.9% 1.41 -29.5%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.9 BTTS prob63.5%

H 39% / xG 1.9-1.9 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.2%

#2 2–1 7.8%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.3%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nõmme Kalju II1.9

Maardu1.9

COMBINED 3.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NÕMME KALJU II · PPG 1.09

MAARDU · PPG 0.90

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Nõmme Kalju II (H) 38.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -3.0%

Draw 21.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -11.6%

Maardu (A) 39.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -16.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nõmme Kalju II face Maardu in Estonia - Esiliiga A on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nõmme Kalju II a 39% chance, the draw 22% and Maardu 40%, so Maardu are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Nõmme Kalju II and 1.9 for Maardu (3.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nõmme Kalju II are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 0.90 for Maardu.

Nõmme Kalju II vs Maardu Prediction— Estonia - Esiliiga A

Match Preview & Prediction

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