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Laredo Heat vs Vermont Green Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Semi-finals ·Monday, July 27, 2026, 01:00

Laredo Heat

PPG 2.56 · HOME

UPCOMING

Vermont Green

PPG 3.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.3%0-18.0%0-26.1%0-33.1%0-4+1.6%1 1-07.6%1-111.4%1-28.6%1-34.4%1-4+2.3%2 2-05.4%2-18.1%2-26.1%2-33.1%2-4+1.6%3 3-02.5%3-13.8%3-22.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.9%4+-21.4%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 38.3% — — —

Draw 25.7% — — —

Away win 36.0% — — —

Over 2.5 62.0% — — —

Over 3.5 40.0% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 33%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob62.5%

A 36% / xG 1.4-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.4%

#2 1–2 8.6%

#3 2–1 8.1%

#4 0–0 5.3%

#5 0–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Laredo Heat1.4

Vermont Green1.5

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.0% · O3.5 PROB 40.0%

Form & verdict PPG

LAREDO HEAT · PPG 2.56

VERMONT GREEN · PPG 3.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.09 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Laredo Heat (H) 38.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Vermont Green (A) 36.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Laredo Heat face Vermont Green in USA - USL League Two on Monday, July 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Laredo Heat a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Vermont Green 36%, so Laredo Heat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Laredo Heat and 1.5 for Vermont Green (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Laredo Heat are averaging 2.56 points per game versus 3.00 for Vermont Green.

Laredo Heat vs Vermont Green Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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