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Vermont Green vs Asheville City Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Quarter-finals ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 22:30

Vermont Green

PPG 2.78 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Asheville City

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 64% chance

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.3%0-21.5%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-08.7%1-17.9%1-23.6%1-31.1%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.5%2-19.5%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-08.5%3-17.7%3-23.5%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-09.1%4+-18.2%4+-23.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.6% — — —

Draw 19.8% — — —

Away win 17.6% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 41.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 24.7% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.5%

#3 1–1 7.9%

#4 3–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vermont Green2.4

Asheville City0.9

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.8%

Form & verdict PPG

VERMONT GREEN · PPG 2.78

ASHEVILLE CITY · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

64%

STRONG_HOME

xG gap +1.51 for Home, form 2.78 vs 2.00 - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Vermont Green (H) 62.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 19.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Asheville City (A) 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vermont Green face Asheville City in USA - USL League Two on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vermont Green a 63% chance, the draw 20% and Asheville City 18%, so Vermont Green are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Vermont Green and 0.9 for Asheville City (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vermont Green are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 2.00 for Asheville City. This match finished 4-0.

Vermont Green vs Asheville City Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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