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Flint City Bucks vs Peoria Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Quarter-finals ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 23:30

Flint City Bucks

PPG 2.75 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWL

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Peoria

PPG 2.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS 69% chance

Model probability 63.8% vs bookmaker-implied 70.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-15.1%0-23.6%0-31.7%0-4+0.8%1 1-06.8%1-19.7%1-26.9%1-33.3%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.3%2-26.6%2-33.1%2-4+1.5%3 3-04.1%3-15.9%3-24.2%3-32.0%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-14.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.5%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.5% 58.8% 1.70 -15.8%

Draw 22.4% 25.0% 4.00 -6.2%

Away win 28.1% 27.8% 3.60 +0.7%

Over 2.5 63.7% 71.4% 1.40 -10.8%

Over 3.5 41.3% 50.0% 2.00 -17.4%

BTTS 63.8% 70.9% 1.41 -10.0%

Home O1.5 55.7% 68.0% 1.47 -18.1%

Away O1.5 41.9% 43.1% 2.32 -2.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 6 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 83%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob63.8%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–2 6.9%

#4 2–2 6.6%

#5 2–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Flint City Bucks1.9

Peoria1.4

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 41.3%

Form & verdict PPG

FLINT CITY BUCKS · PPG 2.75

PEORIA · PPG 2.67

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

69%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.48 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Flint City Bucks (H) 49.5%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -15.8%

Draw 22.4%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -6.2%

Peoria (A) 28.1%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +0.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Flint City Bucks face Peoria in USA - USL League Two on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Flint City Bucks a 50% chance, the draw 22% and Peoria 28%, so Flint City Bucks are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Flint City Bucks and 1.4 for Peoria (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Flint City Bucks are averaging 2.75 points per game versus 2.67 for Peoria. This match finished 4-0.

Flint City Bucks vs Peoria Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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