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Ballard vs Ventura County Fusion Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Quarter-finals ·Friday, July 24, 2026, 19:00

Ballard

PPG 2.78 · HOME

UPCOMING

Ventura County Fusion

PPG 2.14 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-16.3%0-24.4%0-32.0%0-4+1.0%1 1-07.7%1-110.7%1-27.5%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.5%2-19.1%2-26.4%2-33.0%2-4+1.4%3 3-03.7%3-15.2%3-23.6%3-31.7%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-13.2%4+-22.2%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% — — —

Draw 24.1% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.3% — — —

BTTS 62.7% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 41.9% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 55%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob62.7%

H 46% / xG 1.7-1.4 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.5%

#4 2–0 6.5%

#5 2–2 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ballard1.7

Ventura County Fusion1.4

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.3%

Form & verdict PPG

BALLARD · PPG 2.78

VENTURA COUNTY FUSION · PPG 2.14

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.31 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ballard (H) 46.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Ventura County Fusion (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Ballard face Ventura County Fusion in USA - USL League Two on Friday, July 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ballard a 46% chance, the draw 24% and Ventura County Fusion 30%, so Ballard are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Ballard and 1.4 for Ventura County Fusion (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ballard are averaging 2.78 points per game versus 2.14 for Ventura County Fusion.

Ballard vs Ventura County Fusion Prediction— USA - USL League Two

Match Preview & Prediction

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