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Geumsan Insam vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:00

Geumsan Insam

PPG 2.14 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jungnang Chorus Mustang

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 64.5%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-18.7%0-25.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.9%1 1-09.9%1-112.3%1-27.7%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.0%2-18.7%2-25.4%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-03.3%3-14.1%3-22.6%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.0%4+-21.2%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 50.8% 1.97 -10.8%

Draw 25.9% 28.6% 3.50 -5.6%

Away win 28.9% 32.1% 3.12 -5.9%

Over 2.5 53.9% 60.6% 1.65 -11.1%

Over 3.5 32.8% 38.6% 2.59 -15.0%

BTTS 55.4% 64.5% 1.55 -14.1%

Home O1.5 46.3% 54.1% 1.85 -14.3%

Away O1.5 36.9% 40.8% 2.45 -9.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 45% / xG 1.4-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 0–0 7.0%

#3 2–1 8.7%

#4 1–0 9.9%

#5 1–2 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Geumsan Insam1.4

Jungnang Chorus Mustang1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

GEUMSAN INSAM · PPG 2.14

JUNGNANG CHORUS MUSTANG · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.17 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Geumsan Insam (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV -10.8%

Draw 25.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -5.6%

Jungnang Chorus Mustang (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.12 · IMPLIED 32.1% EV -5.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Geumsan Insam face Jungnang Chorus Mustang in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Geumsan Insam a 45% chance, the draw 26% and Jungnang Chorus Mustang 29%, so Geumsan Insam are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Geumsan Insam and 1.2 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Geumsan Insam are averaging 2.14 points per game versus 2.00 for Jungnang Chorus Mustang.

Geumsan Insam vs Jungnang Chorus Mustang Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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