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Jecheon Citizen vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 08:00

Jecheon Citizen

PPG 1.29 · HOME

UPCOMING

Namyangju

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.3% vs bookmaker-implied 61.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.4%0-112.0%0-26.4%0-32.2%0-4+0.7%1 1-012.7%1-113.4%1-27.1%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-07.1%2-17.5%2-24.0%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-02.6%3-12.8%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.6% 47.6% 2.10 -10.5%

Draw 27.6% 29.4% 3.40 -3.7%

Away win 29.8% 34.7% 2.88 -8.5%

Over 2.5 50.0% 52.6% 1.90 -5.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.7% 2.97 -8.9%

BTTS 52.3% 61.7% 1.62 -15.3%

Home O1.5 35.0% 48.1% 2.08 -27.2%

Away O1.5 36.4% 39.8% 2.51 -8.6%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.3%

H 43% / xG 1.1-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.4%

#2 0–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 0–1 12.0%

#5 2–1 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jecheon Citizen1.1

Namyangju1.1

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.0% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JECHEON CITIZEN · PPG 1.29

NAMYANGJU · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 2.17 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Jecheon Citizen (H) 42.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -10.5%

Draw 27.6%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -3.7%

Namyangju (A) 29.8%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Jecheon Citizen face Namyangju in South-Korea - K4 League on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jecheon Citizen a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Namyangju 30%, so Jecheon Citizen are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Jecheon Citizen and 1.1 for Namyangju (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jecheon Citizen are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.17 for Namyangju.

Jecheon Citizen vs Namyangju Prediction— South-Korea - K4 League

Match Preview & Prediction

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