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Elfsborg W vs Umeå W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Regular Season - 11 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 11:00

Elfsborg W

PPG 2.20 · HOME

UPCOMING

Umeå W

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.5%0-17.0%0-21.8%0-30.3%0-4+0.0%1 1-020.0%1-110.4%1-22.7%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.8%2-17.7%2-22.0%2-30.3%2-4+0.0%3 3-07.3%3-13.8%3-21.0%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.0%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.3% — — —

Draw 24.9% — — —

Away win 18.8% — — —

Over 2.5 43.6% — — —

Over 3.5 23.0% — — —

BTTS 46.5% — — —

Home O1.5 46.3% — — —

Away O1.5 19.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 14%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob46.5%

H 56% / xG 1.5-0.5 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 46%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.0%

#2 0–0 13.5%

#3 2–0 14.8%

#4 1–1 10.4%

#5 2–1 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Elfsborg W1.5

Umeå W0.5

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.6% · O3.5 PROB 23.0%

Form & verdict PPG

ELFSBORG W · PPG 2.20

UMEÅ W · PPG 1.40

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Elfsborg W (H) 56.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 24.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Umeå W (A) 18.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Elfsborg W face Umeå W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Elfsborg W a 56% chance, the draw 25% and Umeå W 19%, so Elfsborg W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Elfsborg W and 0.5 for Umeå W (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Elfsborg W are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.40 for Umeå W.

Elfsborg W vs Umeå W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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