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Umea W vs Trelleborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Regular Season - 8 ·Saturday, May 30, 2026, 10:00

Umea W

PPG 2.33 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Trelleborg W

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.9%0-12.4%0-21.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.2%1 1-05.2%1-16.5%1-24.0%1-31.6%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.1%2-18.8%2-25.4%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-06.5%3-17.9%3-24.9%3-32.0%3-4+0.8%4+ 4+-08.5%4+-110.4%4+-26.4%4+-32.6%4+-4+1.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 57.0% — — —

Draw 21.6% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 65.8% — — —

Over 3.5 43.1% — — —

BTTS 61.8% — — —

Home O1.5 75.4% — — —

Away O1.5 34.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 14%

BTTS 29%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 69%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob61.8%

H 57% / xG 2.7-1.2 / O2.5 66% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 3–1 7.9%

#3 1–1 6.5%

#4 2–0 7.1%

#5 3–0 6.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Umea W2.7

Trelleborg W1.2

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 65.8% · O3.5 PROB 43.1%

Form & verdict PPG

UMEA W · PPG 2.33

TRELLEBORG W · PPG 1.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.33) vs P(Home)=57.0%

Win probability 1X2

Umea W (H) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Trelleborg W (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Umea W face Trelleborg W in Sweden - Elitettan on Saturday, May 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Umea W a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Trelleborg W 21%, so Umea W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.7 for Umea W and 1.2 for Trelleborg W (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 66% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Umea W are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 1.00 for Trelleborg W. This match finished 0-2.

Umea W vs Trelleborg W Prediction— Sweden - Elitettan

Match Preview & Prediction

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