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Jaraguá vs Blumenau Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Jaraguá

PPG 0.00 · HOME

UPCOMING

Blumenau

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away Over 1.5

xG gap -3.67 for Away, form 0.00 vs 2.12

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.0%0-14.3%0-28.8%0-312.1%0-4+37.7%1 1-00.5%1-11.9%1-23.9%1-35.4%1-4+16.8%2 2-00.1%2-10.4%2-20.9%2-31.2%2-4+3.7%3 3-00.0%3-10.1%3-20.1%3-30.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.0%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 13.3% — — —

Draw 17.4% — — —

Away win 69.3% — — —

Over 2.5 72.6% — — —

Over 3.5 52.0% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 86.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.4 xG (away)4.1 BTTS prob48.5%

A 69% / xG 0.4-4.1 / O2.5 73% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–4 12.5%

#2 0–3 12.1%

#3 0–5 10.3%

#4 0–2 8.8%

#5 1–4 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Jaraguá0.4

Blumenau4.1

COMBINED 4.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 72.6% · O3.5 PROB 52.0%

Form & verdict PPG

JARAGUÁ · PPG 0.00

BLUMENAU · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

xG gap -3.67 for Away, form 0.00 vs 2.12

Win probability 1X2

Jaraguá (H) 13.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Blumenau (A) 69.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Jaraguá face Blumenau in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Jaraguá a 13% chance, the draw 17% and Blumenau 69%, so Blumenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.4 for Jaraguá and 4.1 for Blumenau (4.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-4. There is a 73% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Jaraguá are averaging 0.00 points per game versus 2.12 for Blumenau.

Jaraguá vs Blumenau Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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