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Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Metropolitano

PPG 2.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fluminense-SC

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.4%0-21.5%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-19.0%1-23.1%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.6%2-19.3%2-23.2%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-09.4%3-16.4%3-22.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-15.4%4+-21.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% — — —

Draw 20.7% — — —

Away win 16.3% — — —

Over 2.5 60.7% — — —

Over 3.5 37.5% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 61.8% — — —

Away O1.5 20.1% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 51%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob52.3%

H 63% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.6%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 1–1 9.0%

#4 3–0 9.4%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Metropolitano2.1

Fluminense-SC0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 60.7% · O3.5 PROB 37.5%

Form & verdict PPG

METROPOLITANO · PPG 2.38

FLUMINENSE-SC · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.38 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Metropolitano (H) 63.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Fluminense-SC (A) 16.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Metropolitano face Fluminense-SC in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Metropolitano a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Fluminense-SC 16%, so Metropolitano are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Metropolitano and 0.7 for Fluminense-SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Metropolitano are averaging 2.38 points per game versus 1.12 for Fluminense-SC.

Metropolitano vs Fluminense-SC Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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