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Juventus SC vs Metropolitano Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Juventus SC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWLL

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Metropolitano

PPG 1.62 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

// Model verdict

BTTS 55% chance

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-110.4%0-27.6%0-33.7%0-4+1.9%1 1-08.4%1-112.3%1-29.0%1-34.4%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.0%2-17.3%2-25.3%2-32.6%2-4+1.3%3 3-02.0%3-12.9%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-11.1%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.4% — — —

Draw 25.0% — — —

Away win 34.6% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 34.7% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 35.2% — — —

Away O1.5 48.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–2 9.0%

#3 0–0 7.1%

#4 0–1 10.4%

#5 0–2✓ 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventus SC1.2

Metropolitano1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUS SC · PPG 1.25

METROPOLITANO · PPG 1.62

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

Chance this pick lands

55%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventus SC (H) 40.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Metropolitano (A) 34.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventus SC face Metropolitano in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventus SC a 40% chance, the draw 25% and Metropolitano 35%, so Juventus SC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Juventus SC and 1.5 for Metropolitano (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventus SC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 1.62 for Metropolitano. This match finished 0-2.

Juventus SC vs Metropolitano Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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