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Fluminense-SC vs Tubarao Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Fluminense-SC

PPG 1.12 · HOME

LAST 5

WDLWL

2 – 0

FULL TIME

Tubarao

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLL 

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.3%0-116.2%0-28.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.5%1-113.3%1-27.0%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-05.1%2-15.4%2-22.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.3%3 3-01.4%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.4%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.7% — — —

Draw 32.3% — — —

Away win 38.0% — — —

Over 2.5 39.3% — — —

Over 3.5 19.7% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 36.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 15.3%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–1 16.2%

#4 1–0 12.5%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Fluminense-SC0.8

Tubarao1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 39.3% · O3.5 PROB 19.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FLUMINENSE-SC · PPG 1.12

TUBARAO · PPG 1.50

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

49%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.25, combined xG 1.88 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Fluminense-SC (H) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Tubarao (A) 38.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Fluminense-SC face Tubarao in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Fluminense-SC a 30% chance, the draw 32% and Tubarao 38%, so Tubarao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Fluminense-SC and 1.1 for Tubarao (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 39% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Fluminense-SC are averaging 1.12 points per game versus 1.50 for Tubarao. This match finished 2-0.

Fluminense-SC vs Tubarao Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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