Today / Brazil - Catarinense - 2 / Blumenau vs Nação

Blumenau vs Nação Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Matchday 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Blumenau

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Nação

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5 63% chance

Model probability 61.8% vs bookmaker-implied 64.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.0%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-18.5%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-15.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.1% 85.5% 1.17 -30.9%

Draw 21.9% 15.4% 6.50 +25.4%

Away win 18.9% 10.0% 10.00 +53.4%

Over 2.5 53.9% 63.7% 1.57 -15.4%

Over 3.5 32.8% 43.5% 2.30 -24.6%

BTTS 48.5% 43.5% 2.30 +11.6%

Home O1.5 61.8% 64.1% 1.56 -3.6%

Away O1.5 20.0% 37.6% 2.66 -28.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 9 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 44%

Score Hit 44%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.5%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blumenau2.1

Nação0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BLUMENAU · PPG 1.38

NAÇÃO · PPG 0.75

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

63%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.49 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Blumenau (H) 59.1%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -30.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +25.4%

Nação (A) 18.9%

ODDS 10.00 · IMPLIED 10.0% EV +53.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Blumenau face Nação in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blumenau a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Nação 19%, so Blumenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Blumenau and 0.7 for Nação (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blumenau are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Nação. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +100.0%. This match finished 0-2.