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Blumenau vs Nação Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Blumenau

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Nação

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-14.0%0-21.3%0-30.3%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.1%1-18.5%1-22.8%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-014.0%2-19.1%2-23.0%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-010.0%3-16.5%3-22.1%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-08.8%4+-15.8%4+-21.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 59.2% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 18.9% — — —

Over 2.5 53.8% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 62.2% — — —

Away O1.5 20.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.4%

H 59% / xG 2.1-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 14.0%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 3–0 10.0%

#4 1–1 8.5%

#5 2–1 9.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Blumenau2.1

Nação0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

BLUMENAU · PPG 1.38

NAÇÃO · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.38) > Away POOR (0.75)

Win probability 1X2

Blumenau (H) 59.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Nação (A) 18.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Blumenau face Nação in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Blumenau a 59% chance, the draw 22% and Nação 19%, so Blumenau are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Blumenau and 0.7 for Nação (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Blumenau are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Nação.

Blumenau vs Nação Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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