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Tubarao vs Guarani de Palhoça Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Tubarao

PPG 1.38 · HOME

UPCOMING

Guarani de Palhoça

PPG 0.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.6%0-16.4%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-011.5%1-111.2%1-25.5%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.0%2-19.8%2-24.8%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-05.8%3-15.7%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-03.7%4+-13.7%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.5% — — —

Draw 25.4% — — —

Away win 24.1% — — —

Over 2.5 53.9% — — —

Over 3.5 32.8% — — —

BTTS 55.4% — — —

Home O1.5 53.5% — — —

Away O1.5 29.2% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.4%

H 50% / xG 1.7-1.0 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.2%

#2 2–0 10.0%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tubarao1.7

Guarani de Palhoça1.0

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TUBARAO · PPG 1.38

GUARANI DE PALHOÇA · PPG 0.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.76 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tubarao (H) 50.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Guarani de Palhoça (A) 24.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Tubarao face Guarani de Palhoça in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tubarao a 51% chance, the draw 25% and Guarani de Palhoça 24%, so Tubarao are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tubarao and 1.0 for Guarani de Palhoça (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tubarao are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.88 for Guarani de Palhoça.

Tubarao vs Guarani de Palhoça Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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