Today / Brazil - Catarinense - 2 / Nação vs Hercílio Luz

Nação vs Hercílio Luz Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 18 ·Saturday, July 25, 2026, 18:00

Nação

PPG 1.50 · HOME

UPCOMING

Hercílio Luz

PPG 2.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.3%0-118.1%0-213.2%0-36.4%0-4+3.3%1 1-07.8%1-111.4%1-28.3%1-34.1%1-4+2.1%2 2-02.4%2-13.6%2-22.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.6%3 3-00.5%3-10.7%3-20.5%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.1%4+-10.1%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 17.3% — — —

Draw 25.8% — — —

Away win 57.0% — — —

Over 2.5 46.2% — — —

Over 3.5 25.4% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.3% — — —

Away O1.5 49.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 20%

O2.5 40%

BTTS 60%

Score Hit 20%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob48.5%

A 57% / xG 0.6-1.5 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 18.1%

#2 0–0 12.3%

#3 0–2 13.2%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 1–2 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nação0.6

Hercílio Luz1.5

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 25.4%

Form & verdict PPG

NAÇÃO · PPG 1.50

HERCÍLIO LUZ · PPG 2.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚠ RISKY - Form concerns with home team | No clear value

45%

DANGER

xG gap -0.83 - moderate Away edge

Win probability 1X2

Nação (H) 17.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 25.8%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Hercílio Luz (A) 57.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Nação face Hercílio Luz in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Saturday, July 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nação a 17% chance, the draw 26% and Hercílio Luz 57%, so Hercílio Luz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Nação and 1.5 for Hercílio Luz (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nação are averaging 1.50 points per game versus 2.12 for Hercílio Luz.

Nação vs Hercílio Luz Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

More Brazil - Catarinense - 2 Predictions