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Hercílio Luz vs Caravaggio Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 23:00

Hercílio Luz

PPG 2.62 · HOME

UPCOMING

Caravaggio

PPG 1.88 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-14.8%0-22.8%0-31.1%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.3%1-19.7%1-25.7%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.4%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.6%3-16.6%3-23.9%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-15.3%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 54.2% — — —

Draw 22.3% — — —

Away win 23.5% — — —

Over 2.5 63.7% — — —

Over 3.5 40.1% — — —

BTTS 62.5% — — —

Home O1.5 55.6% — — —

Away O1.5 36.3% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 52%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob62.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.2 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 8.3%

#5 3–1 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hercílio Luz2.0

Caravaggio1.2

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HERCÍLIO LUZ · PPG 2.62

CARAVAGGIO · PPG 1.88

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.62) > Away GOOD (1.88)

Win probability 1X2

Hercílio Luz (H) 54.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Caravaggio (A) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Hercílio Luz face Caravaggio in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hercílio Luz a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Caravaggio 24%, so Hercílio Luz are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Hercílio Luz and 1.2 for Caravaggio (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hercílio Luz are averaging 2.62 points per game versus 1.88 for Caravaggio.

Hercílio Luz vs Caravaggio Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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