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Guarani de Palhoça vs Jaraguá Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Regular Season - 17 ·Wednesday, July 22, 2026, 18:00

Guarani de Palhoça

PPG 1.25 · HOME

UPCOMING

Jaraguá

PPG 0.12 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.12) - Strong consensus

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.0%0-11.6%0-20.4%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-08.9%1-14.8%1-21.3%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-013.2%2-17.2%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-013.0%3-17.1%3-21.9%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-020.0%4+-110.9%4+-23.0%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 74.5% — — —

Draw 17.6% — — —

Away win 8.0% — — —

Over 2.5 67.0% — — —

Over 3.5 44.3% — — —

BTTS 48.4% — — —

Home O1.5 76.8% — — —

Away O1.5 18.5% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

4 – 0 63%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)3.0 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob48.4%

H 74% / xG 3.0-0.5 / O2.5 67% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.2%

#2 3–0 13.0%

#3 4–0 9.6%

#4 1–0 8.9%

#5 2–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guarani de Palhoça3.0

Jaraguá0.5

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.0% · O3.5 PROB 44.3%

Form & verdict PPG

GUARANI DE PALHOÇA · PPG 1.25

JARAGUÁ · PPG 0.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

66%

STRONG_HOME

Home team in AVERAGE form (1.25), Away POOR (0.12) - Strong consensus

Win probability 1X2

Guarani de Palhoça (H) 74.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 17.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Jaraguá (A) 8.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guarani de Palhoça face Jaraguá in Brazil - Catarinense - 2 on Wednesday, July 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guarani de Palhoça a 75% chance, the draw 18% and Jaraguá 8%, so Guarani de Palhoça are favoured to win. Expected goals are 3.0 for Guarani de Palhoça and 0.5 for Jaraguá (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guarani de Palhoça are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.12 for Jaraguá.

Guarani de Palhoça vs Jaraguá Prediction— Brazil - Catarinense - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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