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HK Rangers vs Southern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 1 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 10:00

HK Rangers

PPG 1.11 · HOME

3 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Southern D.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 66.7%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-110.3%0-27.1%0-33.3%0-4+1.6%1 1-09.0%1-112.5%1-28.7%1-34.0%1-4+1.9%2 2-05.5%2-17.6%2-25.3%2-32.4%2-4+1.2%3 3-02.2%3-13.1%3-22.1%3-31.0%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.9%4+-11.2%4+-20.8%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

Draw 26.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.9%

Away win 41.0% 42.6% 2.35 -3.6%

Over 2.5 48.3% 61.7% 1.62 -21.8%

Over 3.5 26.6% 39.2% 2.55 -32.2%

BTTS 52.9% 66.7% 1.50 -20.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 21%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.4 BTTS prob52.9%

A 41% / xG 1.2-1.4 / O2.5 48% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.5%

#2 0–1 10.3%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 1–2 8.7%

#5 2–1 7.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

HK Rangers1.2

Southern D.1.4

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 48.3% · O3.5 PROB 26.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HK RANGERS · PPG 1.11

SOUTHERN D. · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

HK Rangers (H) 32.8%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -14.1%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.9%

Southern D. (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -3.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

HK Rangers face Southern D. in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives HK Rangers a 33% chance, the draw 26% and Southern D. 41%, so Southern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for HK Rangers and 1.4 for Southern D. (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 48% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, HK Rangers are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.67 for Southern D.. This match finished 3-1.

HK Rangers vs Southern D. Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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