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Marseille W vs Le Havre W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Matchday 1 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 19:00

Marseille W

PPG 0.76 · HOME

UPCOMING

Le Havre W

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5 57% chance

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+17.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-16.2%0-25.0%0-32.6%0-4+1.5%1 1-06.4%1-110.2%1-28.2%1-34.4%1-4+2.5%2 2-05.3%2-18.5%2-26.8%2-33.6%2-4+2.0%3 3-02.9%3-14.6%3-23.7%3-32.0%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-12.8%4+-22.2%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.3% 63.7% 1.57 -36.7%

Draw 23.8% 26.3% 3.80 -5.7%

Away win 36.0% 22.2% 4.50 +62.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 54.1% 1.85 +17.7%

Over 3.5 40.2% 33.3% 3.00 +20.6%

BTTS 63.0% 57.1% 1.75 +10.3%

Home O1.5 48.3% 52.4% 1.91 -7.8%

Away O1.5 47.9% 33.3% 3.00 +43.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 43%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.0%

H 40% / xG 1.6-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 8.5%

#3 1–2 8.2%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Marseille W1.6

Le Havre W1.6

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MARSEILLE W · PPG 0.76

LE HAVRE W · PPG 1.17

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

57%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.05 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Marseille W (H) 40.3%

ODDS 1.57 · IMPLIED 63.7% EV -36.7%

Draw 23.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -5.7%

Le Havre W (A) 36.0%

ODDS 4.50 · IMPLIED 22.2% EV +62.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Marseille W face Le Havre W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Marseille W a 40% chance, the draw 24% and Le Havre W 36%, so Marseille W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Marseille W and 1.6 for Le Havre W (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Marseille W are averaging 0.76 points per game versus 1.17 for Le Havre W. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +75.5%.

Marseille W vs Le Havre W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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