Today / France - Feminine Division 1 / Montpellier W vs Paris FC W

Montpellier W vs Paris FC W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Regular Season - 20 ·Wednesday, April 22, 2026, 16:45

Montpellier W

PPG 0.78 · HOME

0 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Paris FC W

PPG 1.89 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 85.6% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+16.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.9%0-18.8%0-213.0%0-312.9%0-4+20.0%1 1-01.6%1-14.8%1-27.2%1-37.1%1-4+11.0%2 2-00.4%2-11.3%2-22.0%2-32.0%2-4+3.0%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 4.2% 15.4% 6.50 -72.7%

Draw 10.1% 23.1% 4.33 -56.3%

Away win 85.6% 73.5% 1.36 +16.4%

Over 2.5 68.4% — — —

Over 3.5 46.9% — — —

BTTS 40.1% 57.1% 1.75 -29.8%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 18 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 72%

O2.5 44%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 61%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 4 76%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)0.6 xG (away)3.0 BTTS prob40.1%

A 86% / xG 0.6-3.0 / O2.5 68% / NoBTTS 40%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–2✓ 13.0%

#2 0–3 12.9%

#3 0–4 9.6%

#4 0–1 8.8%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montpellier W0.6

Paris FC W3.0

COMBINED 3.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 68.4% · O3.5 PROB 46.9%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTPELLIER W · PPG 0.78

PARIS FC W · PPG 1.89

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.89) vs Home POOR (0.78)

Win probability 1X2

Montpellier W (H) 4.2%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV -72.7%

Draw 10.1%

ODDS 4.33 · IMPLIED 23.1% EV -56.3%

Paris FC W (A) 85.6%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +16.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montpellier W face Paris FC W in France - Feminine Division 1 on Wednesday, April 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montpellier W a 4% chance, the draw 10% and Paris FC W 86%, so Paris FC W are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.6 for Montpellier W and 3.0 for Paris FC W (3.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-2. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 40% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montpellier W are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 1.89 for Paris FC W. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +16.4%. This match finished 0-2.

Montpellier W vs Paris FC W Prediction— France - Feminine Division 1

Match Preview & Prediction

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