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Tai Po vs North District Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Championship Group - 1 ·Saturday, April 18, 2026, 07:00

Tai Po

PPG 2.11 · HOME

3 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

North District

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.1 puts the goal expectation well above the line.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.6%0-13.2%0-23.1%0-32.0%0-4+1.6%1 1-03.5%1-16.9%1-26.8%1-34.4%1-4+3.4%2 2-03.8%2-17.4%2-27.3%2-34.7%2-4+3.6%3 3-02.7%3-15.3%3-25.2%3-33.4%3-4+2.6%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-14.7%4+-24.6%4+-33.0%4+-4+2.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.6% 40.8% 2.45 +6.8%

Draw 20.3% 29.4% 3.40 -31.0%

Away win 36.1% 41.7% 2.40 -13.4%

Over 2.5 77.7% — — —

Over 3.5 58.8% — — —

BTTS 75.9% 71.4% 1.40 +6.3%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 51%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob75.9%

H 44% / xG 2.2-2.0 / O2.5 78% / BTTS 76%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.4%

#2 2–2 7.3%

#3 1–1 6.9%

#4 1–2 6.8%

#5 3–1 5.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tai Po2.2

North District2.0

COMBINED 4.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 77.7% · O3.5 PROB 58.8%

Form & verdict PPG

TAI PO · PPG 2.11

NORTH DISTRICT · PPG 1.78

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.11) > Away GOOD (1.78)

Win probability 1X2

Tai Po (H) 43.6%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +6.8%

Draw 20.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -31.0%

North District (A) 36.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -13.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tai Po face North District in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, April 18, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tai Po a 44% chance, the draw 20% and North District 36%, so Tai Po are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Tai Po and 2.0 for North District (4.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 78% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 76% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tai Po are averaging 2.11 points per game versus 1.78 for North District. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +6.8%. This match finished 3-2.

Tai Po vs North District Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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