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Nocerina vs Flaminia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 13:00

Nocerina

PPG 1.13 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Flaminia

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.5%0-114.0%0-27.8%0-32.9%0-4+1.0%1 1-012.0%1-113.4%1-27.5%1-32.8%1-4+1.0%2 2-05.8%2-16.5%2-23.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.5%3 3-01.8%3-12.1%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.6%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 30.9% 44.4% 2.25 -30.5%

Draw 30.0% 31.3% 3.20 -4.0%

Away win 39.1% 35.7% 2.80 +9.5%

Over 2.5 34.6% 48.8% 2.05 -29.1%

Over 3.5 15.8% — — —

BTTS 41.7% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 53%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob41.7%

D 30% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 35% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.0%

#2 1–1✓ 13.4%

#3 0–0 12.5%

#4 1–0 12.0%

#5 0–2 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nocerina1.0

Flaminia1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.6% · O3.5 PROB 15.8%

Form & verdict PPG

NOCERINA · PPG 1.13

FLAMINIA · PPG 1.73

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - 🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

66%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: GOOD form (1.73) vs Home AVERAGE (1.13)

Win probability 1X2

Nocerina (H) 30.9%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -30.5%

Draw 30.0%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -4.0%

Flaminia (A) 39.1%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV +9.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nocerina face Flaminia in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nocerina a 31% chance, the draw 30% and Flaminia 39%, so Flaminia are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Nocerina and 1.1 for Flaminia (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nocerina are averaging 1.13 points per game versus 1.73 for Flaminia. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +9.5%. This match finished 1-1.

Nocerina vs Flaminia Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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