Montespaccato vs Latte Dolce Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Italy - Serie D - Girone G Group G - 32 Campo Sportivo Montespaccato· Roma Sunday, April 19, 2026 14:30

Montespaccato PPG 0.93

2-3 MISS

Latte Dolce PPG 1.20

Over2.5· +13.1% ⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

Montespaccato face Latte Dolce in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montespaccato a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Latte Dolce 35%, so Montespaccato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Montespaccato and 1.5 for Latte Dolce (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montespaccato are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.20 for Latte Dolce. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 42.0%

Odds: 2.40 EV: +0.8%

Draw 23.4%

Odds: 3.25 EV: -23.9%

Away 34.6%

Odds: 2.55 EV: -11.8%

Model lean: BTTS Not tracked as an official bet.

Result: Away ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 61.8% Odds: 1.83 +13.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% Odds: — —

BTTS 63.4% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 2-1 ✘

3rd 1-2 ✘

4th 1-0 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

Montespaccato

1.68

Latte Dolce

1.51

Model SuggestionBTTS  EXCLUDED FROM ROI
ROI tracking: excluded — EV is negative (—), so the model expects this bet to lose money at the offered odds.

League Track Record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5/Under 71%

BTTS/No 54%

Score Hit 42%

Verdict & Form

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.20)