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Montespaccato vs Latte Dolce Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 14:30

Montespaccato

PPG 0.93 · HOME

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Latte Dolce

PPG 1.20 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.1%0-16.2%0-24.7%0-32.4%0-4+1.2%1 1-06.9%1-110.5%1-27.9%1-34.0%1-4+2.1%2 2-05.8%2-18.8%2-26.6%2-33.3%2-4+1.8%3 3-03.3%3-14.9%3-23.7%3-31.9%3-4+1.0%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.0%4+-22.3%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.0% 41.7% 2.40 +0.8%

Draw 23.4% 30.8% 3.25 -23.9%

Away win 34.6% 39.2% 2.55 -11.8%

Over 2.5 61.8% 54.6% 1.83 +13.1%

Over 3.5 39.5% — — —

BTTS 63.4% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 42%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.4%

H 42% / xG 1.7-1.5 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.9%

#4 1–0 6.9%

#5 2–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Montespaccato1.7

Latte Dolce1.5

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.8% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTESPACCATO · PPG 0.93

LATTE DOLCE · PPG 1.20

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

42%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.93), Away AVERAGE (1.20)

Win probability 1X2

Montespaccato (H) 42.0%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +0.8%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -23.9%

Latte Dolce (A) 34.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -11.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Montespaccato face Latte Dolce in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Montespaccato a 42% chance, the draw 23% and Latte Dolce 35%, so Montespaccato are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Montespaccato and 1.5 for Latte Dolce (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Montespaccato are averaging 0.93 points per game versus 1.20 for Latte Dolce. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 2-3.

Montespaccato vs Latte Dolce Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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