R. Monterotondo vs S. Ogliastra Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Italy - Serie D - Girone G Group G - 32 Stadio Fausto Cecconi· Monterotondo Sunday, April 19, 2026 12:30

R. Monterotondo PPG 1.33

2-1 HIT CS3

S. Ogliastra PPG 1.33

Away· +23.6% ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60% confidence

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Monterotondo face S. Ogliastra in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Monterotondo a 36% chance, the draw 23% and S. Ogliastra 41%, so S. Ogliastra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for R. Monterotondo and 1.7 for S. Ogliastra (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Monterotondo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for S. Ogliastra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-1.

Match Result (1X2)

Home 35.5%

Odds: 2.05 EV: -27.2%

Draw 23.3%

Odds: 3.30 EV: -23.1%

Away 41.2%

Odds: 3.00 EV: +23.6%

Model lean: BTTS

Result: Home ✘

Goals Markets

Over 2.5 62.4% Odds: 1.85 +15.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% Odds: — —

BTTS 63.9% Odds: — —

O2.5 OVER → OVER ✔ BTTS YES → YES ✔

Correct Score Picks

1st 1-1 ✘

2nd 1-2 ✘

3rd 2-1 ✔

4th 0-1 ✘

5th 2-2 ✘

Expected Goals (xG)

R. Monterotondo

1.54

S. Ogliastra

1.68

Model SuggestionBTTS  ROI TRACKS: Over 2.5
Tracked ROI market: Over 2.5. 
Raw EV leader: Away(+23.6%)

Verdict & Form

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)