Today / Italy - Serie D - Girone G / R. Monterotondo vs S. Ogliastra

R. Monterotondo vs S. Ogliastra Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Group G - 32 ·Sunday, April 19, 2026, 12:30

R. Monterotondo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

S. Ogliastra

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.7%0-25.6%0-33.1%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.2%1-110.3%1-28.7%1-34.8%1-4+3.0%2 2-04.8%2-18.0%2-26.7%2-33.7%2-4+2.3%3 3-02.4%3-14.1%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-12.2%4+-21.9%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 48.8% 2.05 -27.2%

Draw 23.3% 30.3% 3.30 -23.1%

Away win 41.2% 33.3% 3.00 +23.6%

Over 2.5 62.4% 54.1% 1.85 +15.4%

Over 3.5 40.2% — — —

BTTS 63.9% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 24 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 50%

O2.5 71%

BTTS 54%

Score Hit 42%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob63.9%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.7%

#3 2–1✓ 8.0%

#4 0–1 6.7%

#5 2–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

R. Monterotondo1.5

S. Ogliastra1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.4% · O3.5 PROB 40.2%

Form & verdict PPG

R. MONTEROTONDO · PPG 1.33

S. OGLIASTRA · PPG 1.33

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home AVERAGE (1.33), Away AVERAGE (1.33)

Win probability 1X2

R. Monterotondo (H) 35.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV -27.2%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -23.1%

S. Ogliastra (A) 41.2%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +23.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

R. Monterotondo face S. Ogliastra in Italy - Serie D - Girone G on Sunday, April 19, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives R. Monterotondo a 36% chance, the draw 23% and S. Ogliastra 41%, so S. Ogliastra are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for R. Monterotondo and 1.7 for S. Ogliastra (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, R. Monterotondo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.33 for S. Ogliastra. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +23.6%. This match finished 2-1.

R. Monterotondo vs S. Ogliastra Prediction— Italy - Serie D - Girone G

Match Preview & Prediction

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