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SPG Wallern/ASV vs Voitsberg Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Mitte - 23 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

SPG Wallern/ASV

PPG 1.55 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · AWAY

Voitsberg

PPG 2.82 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 89.5% vs bookmaker-implied 73.5% — a clear edge.

+21.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-14.8%0-28.8%0-310.8%0-4+25.3%1 1-00.9%1-13.3%1-25.9%1-37.2%1-4+17.0%2 2-00.3%2-11.1%2-22.0%2-32.4%2-4+5.7%3 3-00.1%3-10.2%3-20.4%3-30.5%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.0%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 3.3% 17.4% 5.75 -81.0%

Draw 7.2% 21.1% 4.75 -65.8%

Away win 89.5% 73.5% 1.36 +21.7%

Over 2.5 80.5% 71.4% 1.40 +12.7%

Over 3.5 62.7% — — —

BTTS 47.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 4 68%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)3.7 BTTS prob47.6%

A 90% / xG 0.7-3.7 / O2.5 80% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.8%

#2 0–4 9.8%

#3 0–2 8.8%

#4 1–3 7.2%

#5 0–5 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

SPG Wallern/ASV0.7

Voitsberg3.7

COMBINED 4.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 80.5% · O3.5 PROB 62.7%

Form & verdict PPG

SPG WALLERN/ASV · PPG 1.55

VOITSBERG · PPG 2.82

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.82) vs Home GOOD (1.55)

Win probability 1X2

SPG Wallern/ASV (H) 3.3%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV -81.0%

Draw 7.2%

ODDS 4.75 · IMPLIED 21.1% EV -65.8%

Voitsberg (A) 89.5%

ODDS 1.36 · IMPLIED 73.5% EV +21.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

SPG Wallern/ASV face Voitsberg in Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives SPG Wallern/ASV a 3% chance, the draw 7% and Voitsberg 90%, so Voitsberg are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for SPG Wallern/ASV and 3.7 for Voitsberg (4.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, SPG Wallern/ASV are averaging 1.55 points per game versus 2.82 for Voitsberg. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +21.7%. This match finished 1-2.

SPG Wallern/ASV vs Voitsberg Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Match Preview & Prediction

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