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Treibach vs Union Gurten Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Mitte - 24 ·Friday, April 24, 2026, 17:00

Treibach

PPG 1.36 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · AWAY

Union Gurten

PPG 2.08 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Away

Model probability 82.3% vs bookmaker-implied 43.5% — a clear edge.

+89.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.1%0-16.4%0-29.8%0-310.1%0-4+16.8%1 1-01.6%1-15.1%1-27.8%1-38.0%1-4+13.3%2 2-00.7%2-12.0%2-23.1%2-33.2%2-4+5.3%3 3-00.2%3-10.5%3-20.8%3-30.8%3-4+1.4%4+ 4+-00.0%4+-10.1%4+-20.2%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 6.4% 42.6% 2.35 -85.0%

Draw 11.2% 25.6% 3.90 -56.3%

Away win 82.3% 43.5% 2.30 +89.3%

Over 2.5 74.3% 61.7% 1.62 +20.4%

Over 3.5 54.2% — — —

BTTS 52.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 75%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)3.1 BTTS prob52.3%

A 82% / xG 0.8-3.1 / O2.5 74% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–3 10.1%

#2 0–2 9.8%

#3 1–3 8.0%

#4 1–2 7.8%

#5 0–4 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Treibach0.8

Union Gurten3.1

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 74.3% · O3.5 PROB 54.2%

Form & verdict PPG

TREIBACH · PPG 1.36

UNION GURTEN · PPG 2.08

🎯 STRONG BET - Away/Overs value opportunity

95%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.08) vs Home AVERAGE (1.36)

Win probability 1X2

Treibach (H) 6.4%

ODDS 2.35 · IMPLIED 42.6% EV -85.0%

Draw 11.2%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -56.3%

Union Gurten (A) 82.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +89.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Treibach face Union Gurten in Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte on Friday, April 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Treibach a 6% chance, the draw 11% and Union Gurten 82%, so Union Gurten are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Treibach and 3.1 for Union Gurten (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-3. There is a 74% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Treibach are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 2.08 for Union Gurten. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +89.3%. This match finished 0-0.

Treibach vs Union Gurten Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Match Preview & Prediction

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