Today / Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte / Kalsdorf vs Lafnitz

Kalsdorf vs Lafnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Mitte - 23 ·Friday, April 17, 2026, 17:00

Kalsdorf

PPG 2.27 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · O2.5

Lafnitz

PPG 1.60 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 4.4 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 81.2% vs bookmaker-implied 69.4% — a clear edge.

+16.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-01.3%0-12.5%0-22.4%0-31.6%0-4+1.2%1 1-03.0%1-15.9%1-25.8%1-33.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-03.7%2-17.2%2-27.0%2-34.6%2-4+3.5%3 3-03.0%3-15.8%3-25.7%3-33.7%3-4+2.8%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-16.2%4+-26.1%4+-34.0%4+-4+3.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.9% 55.6% 1.80 -12.0%

Draw 19.3% 25.0% 4.00 -22.8%

Away win 31.8% 30.8% 3.25 +3.4%

Over 2.5 81.2% 69.4% 1.44 +16.9%

Over 3.5 63.7% — — —

BTTS 78.3% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 40%

O2.5 60%

BTTS 40%

Score Hit 40%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 2 58%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)2.0 BTTS prob78.3%

H 49% / xG 2.4-2.0 / O2.5 81% / BTTS 78%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 7.2%

#2 2–2 7.0%

#3 1–1 5.9%

#4 1–2 5.8%

#5 3–1 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kalsdorf2.4

Lafnitz2.0

COMBINED 4.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 81.2% · O3.5 PROB 63.7%

Form & verdict PPG

KALSDORF · PPG 2.27

LAFNITZ · PPG 1.60

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: EXCELLENT (2.27) > Away GOOD (1.60)

Win probability 1X2

Kalsdorf (H) 48.9%

ODDS 1.80 · IMPLIED 55.6% EV -12.0%

Draw 19.3%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -22.8%

Lafnitz (A) 31.8%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +3.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kalsdorf face Lafnitz in Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte on Friday, April 17, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kalsdorf a 49% chance, the draw 19% and Lafnitz 32%, so Kalsdorf are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for Kalsdorf and 2.0 for Lafnitz (4.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 81% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 78% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kalsdorf are averaging 2.27 points per game versus 1.60 for Lafnitz. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +16.9%. This match finished 0-0.

Kalsdorf vs Lafnitz Prediction— Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte

Match Preview & Prediction

More Austria - Regionalliga - Mitte Predictions