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Eastern D. vs Hong Kong FC Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Relegation Group - 2 ·Saturday, April 25, 2026, 10:00

Eastern D.

PPG 1.11 · HOME

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Hong Kong FC

PPG 0.33 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 73.3% vs bookmaker-implied 87.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-14.1%0-20.9%0-30.1%0-4+0.0%1 1-018.9%1-17.8%1-21.6%1-30.2%1-4+0.0%2 2-017.8%2-17.4%2-21.5%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-011.2%3-14.6%3-21.0%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-08.2%4+-13.4%4+-20.7%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 73.3% 87.0% 1.15 -15.7%

Draw 19.5% 17.4% 5.75 +12.1%

Away win 7.2% 6.3% 16.00 +15.2%

Over 2.5 40.5% 69.4% 1.44 -41.7%

Over 3.5 20.1% 48.8% 2.05 -58.8%

BTTS 28.8% 48.8% 2.05 -41.0%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 16 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 25%

O2.5 69%

BTTS 75%

Score Hit 19%

ROI 10.8%

Bet Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 67%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.4 BTTS prob28.8%

H 73% / xG 1.9-0.4 / U2.5 40% / NoBTTS 29%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.9%

#2 2–0 17.8%

#3 3–0 11.2%

#4 0–0 10.0%

#5 1–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Eastern D.1.9

Hong Kong FC0.4

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 40.5% · O3.5 PROB 20.1%

Form & verdict PPG

EASTERN D. · PPG 1.11

HONG KONG FC · PPG 0.33

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: AVERAGE (1.11) > Away POOR (0.33)

Win probability 1X2

Eastern D. (H) 73.3%

ODDS 1.15 · IMPLIED 87.0% EV -15.7%

Draw 19.5%

ODDS 5.75 · IMPLIED 17.4% EV +12.1%

Hong Kong FC (A) 7.2%

ODDS 16.00 · IMPLIED 6.3% EV +15.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Eastern D. face Hong Kong FC in Hong-Kong - Premier League on Saturday, April 25, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Eastern D. a 73% chance, the draw 20% and Hong Kong FC 7%, so Eastern D. are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Eastern D. and 0.4 for Hong Kong FC (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 41% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 29% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Eastern D. are averaging 1.11 points per game versus 0.33 for Hong Kong FC. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +15.2%. This match finished 1-2.

Eastern D. vs Hong Kong FC Prediction— Hong-Kong - Premier League

Match Preview & Prediction

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