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Ceará U20 vs Fortaleza U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Final ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Ceará U20

PPG 2.33 · HOME

UPCOMING

Fortaleza U20

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.1%0-110.2%0-24.3%0-31.2%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.4%1-112.9%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.8%2-18.2%2-23.5%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.5%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.5%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.7% 42.0% 2.38 +6.4%

Draw 27.7% 30.8% 3.25 -6.0%

Away win 27.6% 39.2% 2.55 -17.8%

Over 2.5 45.0% 51.3% 1.95 -12.3%

Over 3.5 26.0% 30.3% 3.30 -8.5%

BTTS 49.9% 58.8% 1.70 -15.2%

Home O1.5 38.4% 43.1% 2.32 -10.9%

Away O1.5 24.0% 41.7% 2.40 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob49.9%

H 45% / xG 1.3-0.8 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.4%

#2 1–1 12.9%

#3 0–0 12.1%

#4 0–1 10.2%

#5 2–0 9.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Ceará U201.3

Fortaleza U200.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.0% · O3.5 PROB 26.0%

Form & verdict PPG

CEARÁ U20 · PPG 2.33

FORTALEZA U20 · PPG 2.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 2.11 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Ceará U20 (H) 44.7%

ODDS 2.38 · IMPLIED 42.0% EV +6.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -6.0%

Fortaleza U20 (A) 27.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV -17.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Ceará U20 face Fortaleza U20 in Brazil - Cearense U20 on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Ceará U20 a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Fortaleza U20 28%, so Ceará U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Ceará U20 and 0.8 for Fortaleza U20 (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Ceará U20 are averaging 2.33 points per game versus 2.00 for Fortaleza U20.

Ceará U20 vs Fortaleza U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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