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Tirol U20 vs Ceará U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Semi-finals ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 12:30

Tirol U20

PPG 1.85 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWDD

UPCOMING

Ceará U20

PPG 1.81 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDD

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.8 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 54.3% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-16.9%0-23.9%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.0%1-111.5%1-26.6%1-32.5%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.4%2-19.6%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.7%3-15.3%3-23.1%3-31.2%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.8%4+-13.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.0% 33.3% 3.00 +47.0%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 26.8% 50.0% 2.00 -27.8%

Over 2.5 54.3% 57.1% 1.75 -5.0%

Over 3.5 34.0% 37.0% 2.70 -8.2%

BTTS 54.7% 62.5% 1.60 -12.5%

Home O1.5 48.5% 40.8% 2.45 +18.8%

Away O1.5 35.6% 52.6% 1.90 -32.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 8 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 75%

O2.5 100%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 75%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 37%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 8.4%

#4 1–0 10.0%

#5 1–2 6.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Tirol U201.7

Ceará U201.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.3% · O3.5 PROB 34.0%

Form & verdict PPG

TIROL U20 · PPG 1.85

CEARÁ U20 · PPG 1.81

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Tirol U20 (H) 49.0%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +47.0%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

Ceará U20 (A) 26.8%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -27.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Tirol U20 face Ceará U20 in Brazil - Cearense U20 on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Tirol U20 a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Ceará U20 27%, so Tirol U20 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Tirol U20 and 1.1 for Ceará U20 (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Tirol U20 are averaging 1.85 points per game versus 1.81 for Ceará U20. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Tirol U20 vs Ceará U20 Prediction— Brazil - Cearense U20

Match Preview & Prediction

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