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Vis Pesaro vs Perugia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Girone B · Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 19:00

Vis Pesaro

PPG 1.48 · HOME

LAST 5

LD ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

Perugia

PPG 1.21 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-19.6%0-25.7%0-32.2%0-4+0.8%1 1-010.8%1-112.8%1-27.5%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.2%2-18.5%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-03.2%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.7%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.1% — — —

Draw 31.0% — — —

Away win 33.9% — — —

Over 2.5 46.1% — — —

Over 3.5 28.7% — — —

BTTS 49.2% — — —

Home O1.5 37.3% — — —

Away O1.5 33.0% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 0–0 8.2%

#3 0–1 9.6%

#4 1–2 7.5%

#5 1–0 10.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Vis Pesaro1.3

Perugia1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

VIS PESARO · PPG 1.48

PERUGIA · PPG 1.21

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

42%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.15 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Vis Pesaro (H) 35.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 31.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Perugia (A) 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Vis Pesaro face Perugia in Italy - Serie C - Girone B on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Vis Pesaro a 35% chance, the draw 31% and Perugia 34%, so Vis Pesaro are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Vis Pesaro and 1.2 for Perugia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Vis Pesaro are averaging 1.48 points per game versus 1.21 for Perugia. This match finished 2-2.

Vis Pesaro vs Perugia Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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