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Livorno vs Torres Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Girone B · Matchday 1 ·Monday, August 24, 2026, 18:30

Livorno

PPG 1.54 · HOME

LAST 5

WD ···

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Torres

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

LAST 5

LW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.2% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.1%0-25.3%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-014.0%1-113.3%1-26.3%1-32.0%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.4%2-18.0%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.4%3-13.2%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 46.5% 2.15 -6.5%

Draw 27.2% 36.4% 2.75 -15.1%

Away win 29.3% 30.3% 3.30 -2.0%

Over 2.5 44.8% 43.5% 2.30 +3.0%

Over 3.5 25.6% 23.1% 4.33 +6.5%

BTTS 49.2% 51.3% 1.95 -4.1%

Home O1.5 32.3% 40.0% 2.50 -19.3%

Away O1.5 25.7% 28.6% 3.50 -6.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.0%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Livorno1.2

Torres0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

LIVORNO · PPG 1.54

TORRES · PPG 1.17

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.25, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Livorno (H) 43.5%

ODDS 2.15 · IMPLIED 46.5% EV -6.5%

Draw 27.2%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -15.1%

Torres (A) 29.3%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Livorno face Torres in Italy - Serie C - Girone B on Monday, August 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Livorno a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Torres 29%, so Livorno are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Livorno and 0.9 for Torres (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Livorno are averaging 1.54 points per game versus 1.17 for Torres. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +6.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Livorno vs Torres Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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