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Sambenedettese vs Forli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Girone B · Matchday 1 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 19:00

Sambenedettese

PPG 1.03 · HOME

LAST 5

DL ···

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Forli

PPG 1.04 · AWAY

LAST 5

DW ···

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.1% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.6%0-111.3%0-25.5%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.7%1-113.3%1-26.5%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.1%2-17.9%2-23.8%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.1%3-21.5%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-11.2%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.4% 44.4% 2.25 -2.4%

Draw 27.7% 35.7% 2.80 -13.5%

Away win 28.8% 33.3% 3.00 -8.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 44.4% 2.25 +0.8%

Over 3.5 25.6% 25.0% 4.00 +1.4%

BTTS 49.1% 51.3% 1.95 -4.3%

Home O1.5 32.4% 42.0% 2.38 -22.9%

Away O1.5 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

H 43% / xG 1.2-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 13.7%

#2 1–1 13.3%

#3 0–0 11.6%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Sambenedettese1.2

Forli1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

SAMBENEDETTESE · PPG 1.03

FORLI · PPG 1.04

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.21, combined xG 2.15 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Sambenedettese (H) 43.4%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -2.4%

Draw 27.7%

ODDS 2.80 · IMPLIED 35.7% EV -13.5%

Forli (A) 28.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -8.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Sambenedettese face Forli in Italy - Serie C - Girone B on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Sambenedettese a 43% chance, the draw 28% and Forli 29%, so Sambenedettese are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Sambenedettese and 1.0 for Forli (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Sambenedettese are averaging 1.03 points per game versus 1.04 for Forli. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +5.0%. This match finished 2-2.

Sambenedettese vs Forli Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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