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Pineto vs Livorno Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Girone B · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 19:00

Pineto

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

DD ···

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Livorno

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

WD ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.6%0-110.9%0-25.6%0-31.9%0-4+0.6%1 1-013.0%1-113.2%1-26.8%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-07.9%2-18.1%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.2%3-13.3%3-21.7%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.3%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.6% — — —

Draw 32.6% — — —

Away win 29.7% — — —

Over 2.5 43.1% — — —

Over 3.5 21.1% — — —

BTTS 47.2% — — —

Home O1.5 33.1% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0✓ 10.6%

#3 1–0 13.0%

#4 0–1 10.9%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Pineto1.2

Livorno1.0

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.1% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

PINETO · PPG 1.45

LIVORNO · PPG 1.06

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.20, combined xG 2.24 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Pineto (H) 37.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 32.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Livorno (A) 29.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Pineto face Livorno in Italy - Serie C - Girone B on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Pineto a 38% chance, the draw 33% and Livorno 30%, so Pineto are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Pineto and 1.0 for Livorno (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Pineto are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.06 for Livorno. This match finished 0-0.

Pineto vs Livorno Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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