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Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Gubbio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Girone B · Matchday 1 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:00

Guidonia Montecelio 1937

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

WL ···

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Gubbio

PPG 1.38 · AWAY

LAST 5

LL ···

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.0%0-114.6%0-26.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.5%1 1-015.6%1-113.3%1-25.7%1-31.6%1-4+0.4%2 2-07.1%2-16.1%2-22.6%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-02.2%3-11.9%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.6%4+-10.5%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.2% — — —

Draw 33.9% — — —

Away win 29.9% — — —

Over 2.5 34.8% — — —

Over 3.5 18.2% — — —

BTTS 45.5% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 22.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 57%

Score Hit 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 17.0%

#2 1–0 15.6%

#3 1–1 13.3%

#4 0–1 14.6%

#5 2–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Guidonia Montecelio 19370.9

Gubbio0.9

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.8% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

GUIDONIA MONTECELIO 1937 · PPG 1.14

GUBBIO · PPG 1.38

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.06, combined xG 1.77 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 (H) 36.2%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Gubbio (A) 29.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 face Gubbio in Italy - Serie C - Girone B on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Guidonia Montecelio 1937 a 36% chance, the draw 34% and Gubbio 30%, so Guidonia Montecelio 1937 are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Guidonia Montecelio 1937 and 0.9 for Gubbio (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 46% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Guidonia Montecelio 1937 are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.38 for Gubbio. This match finished 3-0.

Guidonia Montecelio 1937 vs Gubbio Prediction— Italy - Serie C - Girone B

Match Preview & Prediction

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