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MWOS vs Kariba Prediction— Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League

Matchday 27 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 13:00

MWOS

PPG 1.62 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

Kariba

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-022.5%0-111.3%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-022.2%1-111.2%1-22.8%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.0%2-15.5%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-03.6%3-11.8%3-20.5%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-10.6%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.7% — — —

Draw 33.0% — — —

Away win 21.3% — — —

Over 2.5 34.5% — — —

Over 3.5 14.7% — — —

BTTS 43.6% — — —

Home O1.5 30.6% — — —

Away O1.5 16.4% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 38 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 55%

O2.5 74%

BTTS 66%

Score Hit 68%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 22.2%

#2 0–0 22.5%

#3 0–1 11.3%

#4 2–0 11.0%

#5 1–1 11.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

MWOS1.0

Kariba0.5

COMBINED 1.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MWOS · PPG 1.62

KARIBA · PPG 0.85

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

Chance this pick lands

46%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.48, combined xG 1.49 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

MWOS (H) 45.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 33.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Kariba (A) 21.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

MWOS face Kariba in Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives MWOS a 46% chance, the draw 33% and Kariba 21%, so MWOS are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for MWOS and 0.5 for Kariba (1.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, MWOS are averaging 1.62 points per game versus 0.85 for Kariba. This match finished 4-1.

MWOS vs Kariba Prediction— Zimbabwe - Premier Soccer League

Match Preview & Prediction

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