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Malženice vs Považská Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 16, 2026, 08:30

Malženice

PPG 2.02 · HOME

UPCOMING

Považská Bystrica

PPG 1.02 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.5% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.3% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.2%0-14.7%0-22.7%0-31.0%0-4+0.4%1 1-08.5%1-19.6%1-25.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.7%2-19.9%2-25.6%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-06.0%3-16.7%3-23.8%3-31.4%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-15.5%4+-23.1%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.6% 39.2% 2.55 +36.7%

Draw 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Away win 22.9% 41.7% 2.40 -27.0%

Over 2.5 59.5% 56.5% 1.77 +5.3%

Over 3.5 36.5% 33.9% 2.95 +7.7%

BTTS 54.5% 62.5% 1.60 -12.8%

Home O1.5 58.2% 44.4% 2.25 +30.9%

Away O1.5 34.7% 46.5% 2.15 -25.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 44 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 52%

BTTS 71%

Score Hit 43%

ROI -16.4%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob54.5%

H 54% / xG 2.0-1.1 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.6%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 8.7%

#4 1–0 8.5%

#5 3–1 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Malženice2.0

Považská Bystrica1.1

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.5% · O3.5 PROB 36.5%

Form & verdict PPG

MALŽENICE · PPG 2.02

POVAŽSKÁ BYSTRICA · PPG 1.02

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.92 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Malženice (H) 53.6%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +36.7%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Považská Bystrica (A) 22.9%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -27.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Malženice face Považská Bystrica in Slovakia - 2. liga on Sunday, August 16, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Malženice a 54% chance, the draw 23% and Považská Bystrica 23%, so Malženice are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Malženice and 1.1 for Považská Bystrica (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Malženice are averaging 2.02 points per game versus 1.02 for Považská Bystrica. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +46.4%.

Malženice vs Považská Bystrica Prediction— Slovakia - 2. liga

Match Preview & Prediction

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