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Kluczbork vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 15:00

Kluczbork

PPG 1.75 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Górnik Polkowice

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.7 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.2% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.5% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.4%0-14.4%0-24.0%0-32.5%0-4+1.7%1 1-04.6%1-18.4%1-27.6%1-34.6%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.4%2-17.9%2-27.2%2-34.4%2-4+3.0%3 3-02.8%3-15.0%3-24.6%3-32.8%3-4+1.9%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-13.7%4+-23.3%4+-32.0%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.3% 43.5% 2.30 +1.9%

Draw 21.9% 27.8% 3.60 -12.7%

Away win 33.8% 40.0% 2.50 -15.5%

Over 2.5 67.2% 63.7% 1.57 +5.5%

Over 3.5 44.0% 42.9% 2.33 +2.5%

BTTS 64.3% 69.0% 1.45 -6.8%

Home O1.5 55.4% 51.5% 1.94 +7.5%

Away O1.5 50.9% 49.8% 2.01 +2.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 57%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob64.3%

H 44% / xG 1.9-1.8 / O2.5 67% / BTTS 64%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.4%

#2 2–1✓ 7.9%

#3 1–2 7.6%

#4 2–2 7.2%

#5 3–1 5.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kluczbork1.9

Górnik Polkowice1.8

COMBINED 3.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.2% · O3.5 PROB 44.0%

Form & verdict PPG

KLUCZBORK · PPG 1.75

GÓRNIK POLKOWICE · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.07 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kluczbork (H) 44.3%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV +1.9%

Draw 21.9%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -12.7%

Górnik Polkowice (A) 33.8%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -15.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kluczbork face Górnik Polkowice in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kluczbork a 44% chance, the draw 22% and Górnik Polkowice 34%, so Kluczbork are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Kluczbork and 1.8 for Górnik Polkowice (3.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 67% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kluczbork are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.75 for Górnik Polkowice. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +13.2%. This match finished 2-1.

Kluczbork vs Górnik Polkowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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