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Warta Gorzów vs Carina Gubin Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III · Matchday 2 ·Saturday, August 8, 2026, 12:00

Warta Gorzów

PPG 1.56 · HOME

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Carina Gubin

PPG 1.48 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+4.9% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-16.6%0-25.8%0-33.4%0-4+2.2%1 1-05.7%1-110.1%1-28.8%1-35.2%1-4+3.4%2 2-04.4%2-17.7%2-26.7%2-33.9%2-4+2.6%3 3-02.2%3-13.9%3-23.4%3-32.0%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.6% 50.0% 2.00 -28.8%

Draw 23.0% 28.6% 3.50 -11.7%

Away win 41.4% 33.3% 3.00 +24.2%

Over 2.5 63.6% 60.6% 1.65 +4.9%

Over 3.5 40.4% 32.8% 3.05 +23.2%

BTTS 63.4% 59.5% 1.68 +6.5%

Home O1.5 45.4% 48.1% 2.08 -5.6%

Away O1.5 48.2% 37.9% 2.64 +27.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 5 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 60%

O2.5 80%

BTTS 80%

Score Hit 60%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.8 BTTS prob63.4%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.8 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1✓ 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Warta Gorzów1.5

Carina Gubin1.8

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.4%

Form & verdict PPG

WARTA GORZÓW · PPG 1.56

CARINA GUBIN · PPG 1.48

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.22 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Warta Gorzów (H) 35.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -28.8%

Draw 23.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.7%

Carina Gubin (A) 41.4%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV +24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Warta Gorzów face Carina Gubin in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 8, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Warta Gorzów a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Carina Gubin 41%, so Carina Gubin are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Warta Gorzów and 1.8 for Carina Gubin (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Warta Gorzów are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.48 for Carina Gubin. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.3%. This match finished 2-1.

Warta Gorzów vs Carina Gubin Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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