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Zagłębie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Group III - 1 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 10:00

Zagłębie Lubin II

PPG 1.71 · HOME

UPCOMING

Sparta Katowice

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.6% vs bookmaker-implied 62.9% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.1% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.7%0-15.7%0-24.4%0-32.3%0-4+1.3%1 1-06.4%1-110.0%1-27.7%1-34.0%1-4+2.2%2 2-05.6%2-18.8%2-26.8%2-33.5%2-4+1.9%3 3-03.3%3-15.1%3-24.0%3-32.1%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-13.3%4+-22.6%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.7%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.2% 38.5% 2.60 +17.5%

Draw 22.7% 27.8% 3.60 -11.0%

Away win 32.1% 41.7% 2.40 -23.0%

Over 2.5 63.6% 62.9% 1.59 +1.1%

Over 3.5 40.6% 40.8% 2.45 -0.5%

BTTS 63.1% 65.8% 1.52 -4.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 48.3% 2.07 +2.3%

Away O1.5 48.0% 50.0% 2.00 -4.0%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob63.1%

H 45% / xG 1.8-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.0%

#2 2–1 8.8%

#3 1–2 7.7%

#4 2–2 6.8%

#5 2–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Zagłębie Lubin II1.8

Sparta Katowice1.6

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.6% · O3.5 PROB 40.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ZAGŁĘBIE LUBIN II · PPG 1.71

SPARTA KATOWICE · PPG 1.75

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.20 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Zagłębie Lubin II (H) 45.2%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +17.5%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV -11.0%

Sparta Katowice (A) 32.1%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -23.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Zagłębie Lubin II face Sparta Katowice in Poland - III Liga - Group 3 on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Zagłębie Lubin II a 45% chance, the draw 23% and Sparta Katowice 32%, so Zagłębie Lubin II are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Zagłębie Lubin II and 1.6 for Sparta Katowice (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Zagłębie Lubin II are averaging 1.71 points per game versus 1.75 for Sparta Katowice. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +13.8%.

Zagłębie Lubin II vs Sparta Katowice Prediction— Poland - III Liga - Group 3

Match Preview & Prediction

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