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Cancún vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura - 2 ·Sunday, August 2, 2026, 01:00

Cancún

PPG 1.79 · HOME

UPCOMING

Leones Negros UDG

PPG 1.53 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.3 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 61.5% vs bookmaker-implied 54.1% — a clear edge.

+13.8% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.6%0-13.9%0-22.2%0-30.8%0-4+0.3%1 1-08.0%1-18.8%1-24.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.9%2-19.8%2-25.4%2-32.0%2-4+0.7%3 3-06.7%3-17.3%3-24.0%3-31.5%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-06.2%4+-16.8%4+-23.7%4+-31.4%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.7% 54.3% 1.84 -1.2%

Draw 22.3% 28.2% 3.55 -12.5%

Away win 24.0% 24.4% 4.10 -1.0%

Over 2.5 61.5% 54.1% 1.85 +13.8%

Over 3.5 39.6% 30.8% 3.25 +28.7%

BTTS 55.4% 57.8% 1.73 -4.2%

Home O1.5 60.1% 54.1% 1.85 +11.2%

Away O1.5 36.5% 31.3% 3.20 +16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 3 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 67%

O2.5 67%

BTTS 67%

Score Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 45%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.4%

H 54% / xG 2.2-1.1 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.8%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cancún2.2

Leones Negros UDG1.1

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.5% · O3.5 PROB 39.6%

Form & verdict PPG

CANCÚN · PPG 1.79

LEONES NEGROS UDG · PPG 1.53

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.14 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Cancún (H) 53.7%

ODDS 1.84 · IMPLIED 54.3% EV -1.2%

Draw 22.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -12.5%

Leones Negros UDG (A) 24.0%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -1.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cancún face Leones Negros UDG in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Sunday, August 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cancún a 54% chance, the draw 22% and Leones Negros UDG 24%, so Cancún are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Cancún and 1.1 for Leones Negros UDG (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cancún are averaging 1.79 points per game versus 1.53 for Leones Negros UDG. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +35.8%.

Cancún vs Leones Negros UDG Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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