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Correcaminos Uat vs Tepatitlán Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Apertura - 2 ·Saturday, August 1, 2026, 01:00

Correcaminos Uat

PPG 1.08 · HOME

UPCOMING

Tepatitlán

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.4% vs bookmaker-implied 56.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-17.5%0-24.4%0-31.7%0-4+0.6%1 1-010.1%1-111.8%1-26.9%1-32.7%1-4+1.0%2 2-08.0%2-19.3%2-25.5%2-32.1%2-4+0.8%3 3-04.2%3-14.9%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-02.3%4+-12.7%4+-21.6%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.4% 41.7% 2.40 +16.2%

Draw 24.4% 31.3% 3.20 -13.2%

Away win 27.2% 33.9% 2.95 -11.9%

Over 2.5 53.4% 47.6% 2.10 +12.1%

Over 3.5 32.2% 26.3% 3.80 +22.4%

BTTS 55.4% 56.5% 1.77 -1.9%

Home O1.5 48.1% 41.7% 2.40 +15.4%

Away O1.5 36.5% 35.7% 2.80 +2.2%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 35%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob55.4%

H 48% / xG 1.6-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.3%

#3 1–0 10.1%

#4 0–0 6.4%

#5 2–0 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Correcaminos Uat1.6

Tepatitlán1.2

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 32.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CORRECAMINOS UAT · PPG 1.08

TEPATITLÁN · PPG 1.17

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.40 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Correcaminos Uat (H) 48.4%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +16.2%

Draw 24.4%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.2%

Tepatitlán (A) 27.2%

ODDS 2.95 · IMPLIED 33.9% EV -11.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Correcaminos Uat face Tepatitlán in Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX on Saturday, August 1, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Correcaminos Uat a 48% chance, the draw 24% and Tepatitlán 27%, so Correcaminos Uat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Correcaminos Uat and 1.2 for Tepatitlán (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Correcaminos Uat are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.17 for Tepatitlán. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +22.4%.

Correcaminos Uat vs Tepatitlán Prediction— Mexico - Liga de Expansión MX

Match Preview & Prediction

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