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KTP vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Friday, July 10, 2026

KTP

PPG 2.17 · HOME

UPCOMING

JaPS

PPG 1.17 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-14.1%0-21.6%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.1%1-18.9%1-23.6%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.1%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.7%3-17.0%3-22.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.8%4+-16.3%4+-22.5%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 62.5% — — —

Draw 20.1% — — —

Away win 17.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.7% — — —

Over 3.5 39.9% — — —

BTTS 52.6% — — —

Home O1.5 62.5% — — —

Away O1.5 21.2% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 56%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.6%

H 62% / xG 2.2-0.8 / O2.5 62% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.1%

#2 1–1 8.9%

#3 1–0 11.1%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

KTP2.2

JaPS0.8

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.7% · O3.5 PROB 39.9%

Form & verdict PPG

KTP · PPG 2.17

JAPS · PPG 1.17

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.17) vs P(Home)=62.5%

Win probability 1X2

KTP (H) 62.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 20.1%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

JaPS (A) 17.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

KTP face JaPS in Finland - Ykkosliga on Friday, July 10, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives KTP a 63% chance, the draw 20% and JaPS 17%, so KTP are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for KTP and 0.8 for JaPS (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 62% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, KTP are averaging 2.17 points per game versus 1.17 for JaPS.

KTP vs JaPS Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Match Preview & Prediction

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