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Mikkelin vs Haka Prediction— Finland - Ykkosliga

Sunday, July 5, 2026

Mikkelin

PPG 1.40 · HOME

UPCOMING

Haka

PPG 2.00 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.8%0-117.7%0-210.6%0-34.3%0-4+1.7%1 1-010.5%1-112.6%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-03.8%2-14.5%2-22.7%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-00.9%3-11.1%3-20.6%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.2%4+-10.2%4+-20.1%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 23.5% — — —

Draw 30.6% — — —

Away win 45.9% — — —

Over 2.5 42.4% — — —

Over 3.5 23.2% — — —

BTTS 48.5% — — —

Home O1.5 33.7% — — —

Away O1.5 38.8% — — —

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)0.7 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob48.5%

A 46% / xG 0.7-1.2 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 14.8%

#2 0–1 17.7%

#3 1–1 12.6%

#4 0–2 10.6%

#5 1–0 10.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mikkelin0.7

Haka1.2

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.4% · O3.5 PROB 23.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MIKKELIN · PPG 1.40

HAKA · PPG 2.00

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Away team showing momentum | No clear value

63%

UPSET_VALUE

Away momentum: EXCELLENT form (2.00) vs Home AVERAGE (1.40)

Win probability 1X2

Mikkelin (H) 23.5%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 30.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Haka (A) 45.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mikkelin face Haka in Finland - Ykkosliga on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mikkelin a 24% chance, the draw 31% and Haka 46%, so Haka are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.7 for Mikkelin and 1.2 for Haka (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mikkelin are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 2.00 for Haka.