Today / Australia - NPL Victoria / South Melbourne vs Dandenong T.

South Melbourne vs Dandenong T. Prediction— Australia - NPL Victoria

Regular Season - 19 ·Sunday, July 5, 2026, 05:30

South Melbourne

PPG 0.67 · HOME

UPCOMING

Dandenong T.

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.9 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 67.8% vs bookmaker-implied 80.0%.

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-02.0%0-13.0%0-22.2%0-31.1%0-4+0.6%1 1-04.9%1-17.3%1-25.4%1-32.6%1-4+1.4%2 2-06.0%2-18.8%2-26.5%2-33.2%2-4+1.6%3 3-04.8%3-17.1%3-25.2%3-32.6%3-4+1.3%4+ 4+-05.1%4+-17.6%4+-25.6%4+-32.8%4+-4+1.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.9% 85.5% 1.17 -34.6%

Draw 20.8% 15.4% 6.50 +21.1%

Away win 23.3% 8.3% 12.00 +107.8%

Over 2.5 67.8% 80.0% 1.25 -15.3%

Over 3.5 49.0% 60.6% 1.65 -19.1%

BTTS 63.3% 59.9% 1.67 +5.7%

Home O1.5 61.2% 87.7% 1.14 -30.2%

Away O1.5 49.8% 25.3% 3.95 +96.7%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 68%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.4 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob63.3%

H 56% / xG 2.4-1.5 / O2.5 68% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–1 8.8%

#2 1–1 7.3%

#3 3–1 7.1%

#4 2–2 6.5%

#5 2–0 6.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

South Melbourne2.4

Dandenong T.1.5

COMBINED 3.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 67.8% · O3.5 PROB 49.0%

Form & verdict PPG

SOUTH MELBOURNE · PPG 0.67

DANDENONG T. · PPG 0.67

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.67), Away POOR (0.67)

Win probability 1X2

South Melbourne (H) 55.9%

ODDS 1.17 · IMPLIED 85.5% EV -34.6%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 6.50 · IMPLIED 15.4% EV +21.1%

Dandenong T. (A) 23.3%

ODDS 12.00 · IMPLIED 8.3% EV +107.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

South Melbourne face Dandenong T. in Australia - NPL Victoria on Sunday, July 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives South Melbourne a 56% chance, the draw 21% and Dandenong T. 23%, so South Melbourne are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.4 for South Melbourne and 1.5 for Dandenong T. (3.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-1. There is a 68% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, South Melbourne are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.67 for Dandenong T.. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +107.8%.