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Plateau United vs Kwara United Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Plateau United

PPG 2.03 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Kwara United

PPG 0.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

D ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-18.9%0-23.3%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.3%1-112.3%1-24.6%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.3%2-18.5%2-23.2%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-05.2%3-13.9%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-11.9%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.1% 67.6% 1.48 -30.3%

Draw 28.3% 29.4% 3.40 -2.3%

Away win 24.6% 14.3% 7.00 +43.3%

Over 2.5 42.6% 40.0% 2.50 +6.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 22.0% 4.55 -2.9%

BTTS 48.0% 38.0% 2.63 +26.2%

Home O1.5 39.6% 54.6% 1.83 -27.5%

Away O1.5 20.0% 13.7% 7.30 +27.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 47% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.3%

#2 1–1 12.3%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 2–0 11.3%

#5 0–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Plateau United1.4

Kwara United0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.6% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PLATEAU UNITED · PPG 2.03

KWARA UNITED · PPG 0.83

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Plateau United (H) 47.1%

ODDS 1.48 · IMPLIED 67.6% EV -30.3%

Draw 28.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -2.3%

Kwara United (A) 24.6%

ODDS 7.00 · IMPLIED 14.3% EV +43.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Plateau United face Kwara United in Nigeria - NPFL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Plateau United a 47% chance, the draw 28% and Kwara United 25%, so Plateau United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Plateau United and 0.8 for Kwara United (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Plateau United are averaging 2.03 points per game versus 0.83 for Kwara United. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +27.6%.

Plateau United vs Kwara United Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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