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Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, September 6, 2026, 15:00

Nasarawa United

PPG 1.99 · HOME

LAST 5

L ····

UPCOMING

Bendel Insurance

PPG 1.14 · AWAY

LAST 5

W ····

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.7%0-19.2%0-23.6%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-015.9%1-112.5%1-24.9%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.5%2-23.3%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.9%3-13.8%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.2%4+-11.8%4+-20.7%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.3% 60.6% 1.65 -25.3%

Draw 28.1% 31.3% 3.20 -6.0%

Away win 26.7% 20.0% 5.00 +20.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 41.7% 2.40 +2.5%

Over 3.5 20.9% 23.3% 4.30 -6.1%

BTTS 48.0% 44.6% 2.24 +7.5%

Home O1.5 39.5% 49.5% 2.02 -20.2%

Away O1.5 22.9% 18.9% 5.30 +12.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 57%

O2.5 29%

BTTS 14%

Score Hit 43%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 32%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob48.0%

H 45% / xG 1.4-0.8 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 1–1 12.5%

#3 0–0 11.7%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 0–1 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Nasarawa United1.4

Bendel Insurance0.8

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

NASARAWA UNITED · PPG 1.99

BENDEL INSURANCE · PPG 1.14

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

Chance this pick lands

48%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.57 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Nasarawa United (H) 45.3%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -25.3%

Draw 28.1%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.0%

Bendel Insurance (A) 26.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Nasarawa United face Bendel Insurance in Nigeria - NPFL on Sunday, September 6, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Nasarawa United a 45% chance, the draw 28% and Bendel Insurance 27%, so Nasarawa United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for Nasarawa United and 0.8 for Bendel Insurance (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Nasarawa United are averaging 1.99 points per game versus 1.14 for Bendel Insurance. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +12.8%.

Nasarawa United vs Bendel Insurance Prediction— Nigeria - NPFL

Match Preview & Prediction

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