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Morrinhos vs Goianésia Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Matchday 10 ·Saturday, September 5, 2026, 21:00

Morrinhos

PPG 1.37 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDL

UPCOMING

Goianésia

PPG 1.39 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLWD

// Model verdict

BTTS 53% chance

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.2%0-18.2%0-24.1%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-012.3%1-112.3%1-26.2%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.2%2-19.2%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-04.6%3-14.6%3-22.3%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.4%4+-12.4%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.7% 36.4% 2.75 +28.4%

Draw 25.7% 33.3% 3.00 -13.7%

Away win 27.7% 41.7% 2.40 -20.1%

Over 2.5 51.0% 42.0% 2.38 +21.4%

Over 3.5 31.1% — — —

BTTS 52.9% — — —

Home O1.5 39.9% — — —

Away O1.5 30.5% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.9%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.0 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.3%

#2 1–0 12.3%

#3 2–1 9.2%

#4 2–0 9.2%

#5 0–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Morrinhos1.5

Goianésia1.0

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.0% · O3.5 PROB 31.1%

Form & verdict PPG

MORRINHOS · PPG 1.37

GOIANÉSIA · PPG 1.39

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

Chance this pick lands

53%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.50 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Morrinhos (H) 46.7%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV +28.4%

Draw 25.7%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -13.7%

Goianésia (A) 27.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV -20.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Morrinhos face Goianésia in Brazil - Goiano - 2 on Saturday, September 5, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Morrinhos a 47% chance, the draw 26% and Goianésia 28%, so Morrinhos are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Morrinhos and 1.0 for Goianésia (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Morrinhos are averaging 1.37 points per game versus 1.39 for Goianésia. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.4%.

Morrinhos vs Goianésia Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Match Preview & Prediction

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