Today / Brazil - Goiano - 2 / Trindade vs Morrinhos

Trindade vs Morrinhos Prediction— Brazil - Goiano - 2

Matchday 8 ·Wednesday, August 26, 2026, 22:30

Trindade

PPG 1.27 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDL

2 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Morrinhos

PPG 1.06 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+1.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.3%0-19.8%0-25.2%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.2%1-113.0%1-26.9%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.1%2-18.5%2-24.5%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.5%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.5% 31.3% 3.20 +29.6%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 32.6% 47.6% 2.10 -31.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 23.5% 4.25 +13.2%

BTTS 52.7% 51.8% 1.93 +1.7%

Home O1.5 37.2% 30.5% 3.28 +22.0%

Away O1.5 32.6% 41.2% 2.43 -20.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 7 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 43%

BTTS 43%

Score Hit 29%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 40% / xG 1.3-1.1 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 0–0 9.3%

#4 0–1 9.8%

#5 2–1 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Trindade1.3

Morrinhos1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

TRINDADE · PPG 1.27

MORRINHOS · PPG 1.06

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.26, combined xG 2.38 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Trindade (H) 40.5%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV +29.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Morrinhos (A) 32.6%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV -31.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Trindade face Morrinhos in Brazil - Goiano - 2 on Wednesday, August 26, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Trindade a 41% chance, the draw 27% and Morrinhos 33%, so Trindade are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Trindade and 1.1 for Morrinhos (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Trindade are averaging 1.27 points per game versus 1.06 for Morrinhos. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +34.4%. This match finished 2-2.